Billy Walters is considered the most successful American sports bettor of all time. The initial Kentucky sports betting enthusiast has raked in hundreds of millions of dollars by beating sportsbooks over the past few decades. Now, he has decided to share his betting system with the world.
Walters’ new book is titled “Gambler: Secrets from a Life at Risk.” He co-authored it with Armen Keteyian. The book dedicates two chapters to his betting system. He calls it Master Class and Advanced Master Class. Here are key learnings from both chapters that should help most bettors improve. For example, knowing when to place a bet based on specific game conditions can enhance your winning chances.
Master Class
Master Class is for beginners, but bettors must still remove many reminders. Walters lists three main areas. Bettors need to be sharp in these to succeed. They need to master handicapping, betting strategy, and money management.
Handicapping
Walters’ handicapping system is based on power ratings (below). Before diving into the nitty-gritty, he lays down the essential groundwork that everyone needs to be aware of:
- Awareness of which teams and coaches ease off or substitute key players when holding a substantial lead is vital.
- Injuries. Knowing which players will play is crucial. But understanding how much each player is worth to the line is equally important (more on this below).
Effective Betting Strategies
Walters outlined the most crucial factor for a winning betting strategy. It is to get the best odds on every bet. How do you do that? You can do this by having many accounts. They should be with different sportsbooks or betting sites.
Just a quick heads up: TEXT: Here are a few additional points to consider:
- Check the odds at top sportsbooks. Walters specifically identifies Circa, MGM, Caesars, and Pinnacle. The lines at these sportsbooks provide insight into how the odds are shifting.
- Remember: It’s usually better to place your bets on the favorites at the start and the underdogs towards the end.
- Some numbers in betting matter more than others. Understanding the significance of half points is essential.
- Please remember that it’s not wise to try to recover losses by placing bets on games where you need a clear advantage.
Optimizing Your Money Management
Understanding how to manage your bankroll effectively is essential and nearly as vital as being able to handicap games. You also need to develop your betting strategy. First, you must set your bankroll by deciding how much you want to risk. Walters says, “Start with the assumption that you’ll lose it all.” Also, remember that you can only bet with a bankroll. Protecting it should be your top priority.
Advanced Betting Strategies Master Class
Let’s examine Walters’s handicapping of sports and power ratings in more detail. Although he uses the NFL as an example, many of his strategies can also be applied to other sports.
Power ratings are essential to Walters’ handicapping. They help him predict game scores. Upon acquiring a projected game score, he juxtaposes it with the point spread from sportsbooks. Then he acts.
It is not easy to keep accurate power ratings better than those of the oddsmakers at sportsbooks. Walters has a big team of intelligent people behind his power rankings. His approach to making and updating them is complex. Here are a few factors that go into his power ratings.
Evaluating Team Power Dynamics
This is each team’s raw power rating on a neutral field. Walters’ team starts with an excellent initial power rating. Then, they calculate new ratings weekly for every NFL team. The ratings help him find the expected point spread. He does this by subtracting the teams’ ratings. But it’s the start. He’ll adjust the numbers by adding game-specific variables.
Assessing Player Performance Rankings
Having accurate player rankings is essential as it helps numerically account for injuries. Walter says assessing injuries is the “second-most important factor. It helps in gaining a handicapping advantage in sports.” He gives numbers for all key NFL players. But, he admits that at least 60% of players have a zero value. Here are a few essential points to consider:
Critical Game Factors to Consider
Walters lists several game factors. They must be considered when adjusting power ratings to find a predicted score:
- Home field advantage
- Expected weather
- Each team’s previous schedule (byes, multiple away games, etc.)
- Travel distance/difficulty
- Stadium quirks
- Turf types
Walters goes so far as to classify these as S-factors (special situations). He also has W-factors (weather) and E-factors (emotional). He has numerous factors outlined and measured. They are based on long-term statistical analysis. He updates it yearly. Here are a few examples:
- Turf: Walters upgrades the visiting team when both teams play on the same turf. If they play on different turfs, he upgrades the home team instead.
- Walters upgrades a team that lost its last game by 19+ points. He upgrades them even more if they lose by 29+ points.
- Winning the Super Bowl upgrades a team for its first four games. Losing downgrades a team for its first four.
- Schedule: Walters says one of the most significant downgrades is scheduling quirks. These situations arise when a team plays an away game following a Monday Night Football match.
Developing and Refining Power Ratings
As mentioned earlier, power ratings must be kept updated. They must be updated every week of the season. The team’s new power rating is 90% of its old rating plus 10% of what he calls the True Game Performance Level. The book describes the formula well. It is somewhat complicated. However, the key thing to remember is that only 10% of the new rating comes from the previous week’s result. This ensures he updates his ratings weekly without overreacting to last week’s game.
